Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict had existed since the end of World War 1st, but developed in a full-fledged only after Armenia and Azerbaijan seceded from the Soviet Union. Today there is neither peace nor war, however:
The Ceasefire violations are increasing together with the military budget.

The deep-rooted causes of the conflict are disputed:
Azerbaijan argues that the war was initiated by an Armenian land-hungry;
Armenia maintains that the war was started with Azerbaijan’s military aggression versus Nagorno-Karabakh’s overwhelmingly Armenian population, which sought to exercise its right to self determination; additionally the Yerevan statements underline the anti-Armenian Pogroms made by Azerbaijan.
They have mutually exclusive views of the region’s pre-Soviet and Soviet-era history. Each maintains that its people are indigenous, and the other’s presence is recent. Both sides depict themselves as victims of violence. Both sides sustain the notion of continuity in Nagorno-Karabakh to justify their right to sovereignty today.

On 5th July 1921 the Caucasus bureau of the Communist Party declared Nagorno-Karabakh part of Soviet Azerbaijan and in 1923 the Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous oblast was established, providing the region with broad autonomy inside Azerbaijan.
However on several occasion Armenia petitioned Moscow for the oblast’s transfer.

RECENT HISTORICAL STEPS

• January ’88: Petition made by Armenia for the control of the area over the Nagorno-Karabakh region;
• February ’88: Nagorno-Karabakh Soviet passed a resolution asking for a transfer to the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic. But Azerbaijan refused the transfer and Armenia consented to Nagorno-Karabakh’s incorporation;
• December ’89: Armenia SSR and Nagorno-Karabakh Soviet adopted a joint resolution “On the reunification of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia”;
• September ’91: Regional council in Stepanakert declared the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic independent;
• August 30th 1991: Azerbaijan declared its independence;
• November 1991: Azerbaijan revoked the Nagorno-Karabakh’s autonomous status;
• December ’91: Referendum in Nagorno-Karabakh for independence but there were not Azeri participants and Baku did not recognise the validity of the poll.
• January ’92: Formal declaration of independence by Nagorno-Karabakh, but no State has recognized its statehood.

The Main political cause is the contradiction between Azerbaijan’s demand for territorial integrity and the aspiration of the majority of Nagorno-Karabakh residents for self-determination.


FRICTIONS IN THE AZERI-ARMENIAN POSITIONS

Armenia understands the concept in a nationalist sense, pursuant to which a territorially concentred, historically continuous ethnic group should be allowed to have its own base if it chooses.

Azerbaijan argues that the right to self-determination does not extend to secession and must be exercised in the context. It contests that the war was caused by Armenian aggression.

Armenia - If Azerbaijan had the right to secede from Soviet Union in 1991, Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh have the right to separate from Azerbaijan (position based on the Soviet law). Moreover when Azerbaijan declared its independence it claimed to be the successor of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic of 1918-1920, whose sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh was not recognised by the League of Nations.

Azerbaijan - The right to self-determination does not extend to unilateral secession or to secession by force of arms, and the rights of Karabakh Armenians should not supersede those of Karabakh Azeri purely because they are in majority. They argue that secession is justified if it is from USSR, and not from Union Republics.

In this context Nagorno-Karabakh’s de facto authorities declared that they have the right to statehood because they have a permanent population, a defined territory, an elected government, and the ability to enter in relations with other states.

In this context a series of Human Rights violations took place: violence and ethnic cleansing with different opinions about the starting dates:
Armenia: the first episode was the massacre of Armenians in Sumgait (26-28/02/1988); Armenia maintains that Azerbaijan is another “genocidal” state, which seeks to exterminate all Armenians on its territory. Almost all the pre-war population was forced to become refugees; they also accused the Soviet-era government of Economic and Social discrimination, as well as political repression against Armenians.
Azerbaijan: they started before in November 1987. Similarly they blame Armenia for having ethnically cleansed Azeri from Armenia and the occupied territories to create an ethnically pure greater Armenia.
From ’88 to ’94 both Armenia and Azerbaijan committed atrocities against each other in communal violence that quickly took on a mass mob character. Both committed violations of rules of war, for example often civilians were the mail victims.

The negotiation process is ongoing since 1992 and OSCE has been the main mediator seeking a peace settlement. The co-chairmanship system since 1997 included France, Russia and United States of America; it is the so-called “Minsk group”. The fundamental critic moved to the “Minsk group” is its loath to apply pressure and, additionally, the lack of incentives or disincentives to advance the progress of the negotiations.
At the beginning the first aim was the promotion of an ongoing forum for the negotiations; since 1994 it is to promote the continuation of the ceasefire and to conduct negotiations of a “political agreement on the cessation of the armed conflict”.
They set up three bases for a settlement:
1.The territorial integrity of Armenia and Azerbaijan;
2.Nagorno-Karabakh’s legal status should be defined in an agreement based on self-determination conferring the highest degree of self-rule within Azerbaijan;
3.To guarantee security for Nagorno-Karabakh and its whole population.

The “Minsk Group” adopted two methodologies of solution:
1.Step by step solution (at the beginning was the first solution proposed);
2.Package (proposed since ’97 until 2001 when Key West talks failed).
The essential problem for the negotiations is that since the beginning it has been evident that both sides have sought to buy time. Partly this is because their leaders have not wanted to make compromises, in order not to lose the domestic popularity, with hopes that the postponement of a settlement was to their advantage. Only the Karabakh-Azeri, who continue to live in precarious conditions, have no such strategy.
The essential issue concerns the question of the future status of the Region:
- Armenia supports the independence or the unification of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia;
- Azerbaijan demands that the entity remains part of its territory, but with the consequent problem of Armenia occupation.
Different solutions have been proposed:
Keeping Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan but with considerable autonomy;
Postponing the final status;
Declaring Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan as the parts of a “common state”;
Putting Nagorno-Karabakh under a dual Azeri-Armenian protectorate;
Exchanging Nagorno-Karabakh for land in Armenia (Meghri region);
Giving to Nagorno-Karabakh an intermediate sovereignty leading to “earned recognition”.
An important step is that all the solutions have to be implemented by a referendum in the Nagorno-Karabakh’s population.

The two realistic compromise solutions are:
1.The construction of a Confederation between Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh with an horizontal power sharing;
2.Baku refuses to discuss a confederal solution, so the most realistic status option today is the maintenance of the status quo, keeping Nagorno-Karabakh de jure in Azerbaijan but de facto independent.




Countries Profile

Republic of Armenia
Capital: Yerevan
Border countries: Azerbaijan-proper 566 km, Azerbaijan-Naxcivan exclave 221 km, Georgia 164 km, Iran 35 km, Turkey 268 km.
Independence: 21 September 1991.
Ethnic Groups: Armenian 97.9%, Yezidi (Kurd) 1.3%, Russian 0.5%, other 0.3%.
Religions: Armenian Apostolic 94.7%, other Christian 4%, Yezidi (monotheist with elements of nature worship) 1.3%.
Economy: Agriculture - fruit (especially grapes), vegetables; livestock. Industries - diamond-processing, metal-cutting machine tools, forging-pressing machines, electric motors, tires, knitted wear, shoes, silk fabric, chemicals, trucks, instruments, microelectronics, jewellery manufacturing.

Republic of Azerbaijan
Capital: Baku
Border countries: Armenia (with Azerbaijan-proper) 566 km, Armenia (with Azerbaijan-Naxcivan exclave) 221 km, Georgia 322 km, Iran (with Azerbaijan-proper) 432 km, Iran (with Azerbaijan-Naxcivan exclave) 179 km, Russia 284 km, Turkey 9 km.
Independence: 30 August 1991.
Ethnic Groups: Azeri 90.6%, Dagestani 2.2%, Russian 1.8%, Armenian 1.5%, other 3.9%.
Religions: Muslim 93.4%, Russian Orthodox 2.5%, Armenian Orthodox 2.3%, other 1.8%.
Economy: Agriculture - cotton, grain, rice, grapes, fruit, vegetables, tea, tobacco, cattle, pigs, sheep, goats. Industries - petroleum and natural gas, petroleum products, oilfield equipment; steel, iron ore; cement; chemicals and petrochemicals.